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luni, 13 aprilie 2009
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Mda, am zis ca o las mai moale cu economia, dar uite ca nu ma lasa ea pe mine :)
RăspundețiȘtergereHai inca vreo cateva linkuri pe teme economice, eu zic ca merita atentia:
I've Got Friends In Low Places
As the chart below shows us, the Bank of Japan officially announced its intention to print money to buy sovereign debt on March 19 of 2001. [b]Within a month of the announcement, the Nikkei had rallied just over 19%. Post the rally peak, the Nikkei never saw this level again for four and one half years and proceeded to lose almost 48% of its value over the next year and three quarters post the initial QE announcement rally.[/b]
But I believe there are a number of absolutely key differential points we need to keep in mind when trying to benchmark what will be significant US quantitative easing efforts ahead, as I discussed above, against the experience of Japan. In my mind THE key differential is that Japan began their quantitative easing during a period in which the country as a whole was running a very large surplus. Conditions for the US could not be a further polar opposite at the moment. Japan began their QE efforts when household savings in Japan was quite high and had been for year’s prior. Again, quite the opposite of the current US circumstances. [b]Bottom line? Japan began QE from a position of internal financial strength. The US now begins QE after not having been able to internally fund its own borrowing for many moons, being already heavily indebted and in a big deficit position.[/b] And so now deficit spending in the US is to move into hyper drive, supported in large part by Fed sponsored QE? A huge contrast point to the experience of Japan.
Like the initial experience in Japan, US equities have so far responded favorably to the supposedly magic drug of monetization. But we need to ask ourselves in the larger picture, can US equities build an intermediate or longer term bull market case based on the rationale of massive government deficit spending supported by a Fed that will print money to fund that deficit spending? Can it really be that within the context of the global economy of the moment, the key competitive advantage of the US is a printing press? [b]Make no mistake about it, monetization can positively influence economic and financial market outcomes for a time. We need to respect this fact.[/b] Greenspan proved this in spades during the late 1990’s pre-Y2K liquidity extravaganza in the US. As you’ll remember, the NASDAQ doubled. Of course the aftermath was none too pleasant, and continues as such to this day. As I mentioned above, I believe the key to navigating the investment environment ahead is to anticipate the unintended consequences of current government spending and Fed actions. Over the years it has been my experience that the most important drivers of asset prices are not the outcomes that can be seen and/or anticipated by the many, but rather the unseen outcomes that only the few dare anticipate. Hasn’t this exactly been the case since equity market highs of 2007? I believe it will continue to be so ahead.
Mda, graficul spune tot. Se compara situatia actuala a americanilor cu recesiunea japonezilor si graficul indicelui bursier japonez de atunci. Chiar daca Japonia statea mult mai bine decat US la capitolul rezerve financiare in momentul cand au inceput sa-si cumpere singuri datoriile prin pompos-numitul Quantitative Easing, scenariul pare sa se repete. Mult mai amplificat de data asta din cauza faptului ca US are o tiparnita mult mai "performanta" decat a japonezilor. Si sunt hotarati sa nu se dea batuti. Sa scoata pe banda confetti (pardon - dolari) pana cad late si bursa si economia si sistemul financiar si totul... :)
Stiu ca lumea e vesela acum. Naivitatea e in floare. Toti prefera sa auda numai despre crestere si incheierea "crizei". De revenirea la baloanele vechi, stilul consumerist si viata dulce de termite. Sunt curiosi sa afle de exemplu cum Wells Fargo a avut profituri incredibile. Desi lucrurile sunt cusute clar cu atza alba, la fel ca si in alte cazuri: Wells Fargo expects record Q1 earnings
Since the tax payer bailout of 1 trillion on toxic mortgages, Wells fargo is free to announce they are free from the losses, now that the tax payer is taking care of any losses. Seems they don't want ot participate in the Obama bailouts like a lot of banks. They don't want to abide by the rules impossed by the government. Where does that leave home owners in trouble like me-Screwed! thats what. The banks make money even in foreclosure, as they get a commission for there share holders. That means they make money in foreclosure. They didn't get any money modifiying loans. so Obama has a new bill giving the banks commissions to modify the loans. Problem is the banks are still being stingy and not wanting to participate in Obama's plan. They got what they wanted-tax payers bailout.
Lumea citeste si se bucura ca bancile au supravietuit la asa-zisul test de stress facut de americani. Desi detaliile nu trebuie sa le aflam, ci doar sa avem incredere: Fed Orders Banks Not to Release Stress Test Results. Ca 200 de functionari au reusit sa testeze 19 banci in cateva zile si au zis ca gata, dom'le, nu mai avem probleme. Nu putem sa va dam rezultatele, nu va putem explica cum s-au facut analizele asa repede cu asa putini oameni. Chestii complicate, oricum nu va intereseaza. Dar trebe' sa ne credeti pe cuvant, bancile is sanatoase. Cumparati linistiti actiuni la ele... :)
Eh, dar vin ele si rezultatele la final. Cat mai poti sa scoti iepuri din joben ? Cateva luni, un an inainte ca lumea sa se uite chioras la tine ? Hai sa vedem cum ies rezultatele in primele 3 luni: Market rally could trip over the bottom line
It's the earnings, stupid. Optimism that the fortunes of financial companies like Citigroup were improving sparked a four-week rally beginning March 10 that drove the Standard & Poor's 500 index up 25 percent. But now investors will find out exactly how companies across all industries performed during the first three months of the year. Those quarterly results will determine whether the surge was the beginning of a bull market, or just a blip.
Asadar saptamana asta se anunta si majoritatea incasarilor pe prima parte a lui 2009. Si mai vedem apoi cum ramane si cu bursele si cu optimismul. Pardon, naivitatea. A celor care inca mai confunda luminita de la capatul tunelului cu farurile locomotivei care vine din sensul opus... :)
Flavian, interesante comentariile tale. Daca as putea sa iti dau o sugestie - Incearca te rog sa nu mai dai cu copy/paste la comentarii foarte mari (de cate o pagina). Poti face din ele subiecte noi pe blogul tau.
RăspundețiȘtergereFlavian: Am maine un articol pe aceasta tema.
RăspundețiȘtergereFlavian da si tu doar link catre blog-ul tau. Eu te sustin.
RăspundețiȘtergereRevenind la topic: tare frate asta!
O bagam in manualele de istorie la ce buni suntem noi?
Am avut si noi momentul nostru de glorie! :)
RăspundețiȘtergere